According to CBS, in 2060 39% of Dutch will have a non-native background, reports RTL Nieuws. It is expected that these numbers will mainly be comprised of people from Poland, the Middle East, and South America.
By non-native background, CBS means a person with at least one parent born abroad, taking into account the distinction between first and second-generation immigrants. It is assumed that the population of Dutch origin will decrease from 13.2 million this year to 11.9 million in 2060. This estimate increases the number of residents with a migration background from 4.2 million to 7.6 million. Despite the widespread belief that the increase in migration is due to the growth in the number of refugees, CBS has estimated that asylum seekers will represent only 5% of the total population.
“The growth is mainly due to migrants moving for work or study and family reunification. There is a strong demand for staff, both for general and skilled jobs,” said Tanja Traag, researcher and spokesperson for CBS.
“We looked at the recent migration flow, which turned out to be a little higher than expected in 2017. To find out if this increase is structural, we look at migration to other countries around us.”
Apparently, there are also high numbers of foreign students and labourers. Family migration is also increasing in the Netherlands, with people moving to work and bringing their whole family with them. According to Leo Lucassen, Professor of Labour and Migration History at the University of Leiden, the increase in labour migrants is due to the strong economic position of the Netherlands. “As long as the labour market continues to grow, more people will come to the Netherlands to work and consequently the population will continue to grow.”
In addition, the number of workers from the East is expected to fall because the economic situation in countries such as Poland or Romania is stabilising. Lucassen found that people often fear that migrant workers in the agricultural, construction and logistics sectors may benefit from social services by aggravating the housing shortage. The scholar is dismissive, though: “This is nonsense. Our social system has been and is migration-proof. You don’t just receive subsidies: you have to work for them first. This applies not only to the Dutch but also to EU and non-EU migrants”.